Foresight Scenario of Brand Vulnerability: The Case of the Lithuanian Beauty and Personal Care Products’ Industry Branch


  • Vestina Vainauskiene
  • Rimgaile Vaitkiene


scenarios, methodology, uncertainty, brand vulnerability, future tendencies, consumer based brand equity


Purpose of the article: Scientific studies implicate that in order to successfully manage brands in the modern external environment it is important to apply future foresight methods within the planning context and in such way to predict developing factors in the future turbulent external environment and to make proactive brand management decisions, because other wise brand will become vulnerable, and vulnerability is the main risk assumption. Method of scenario development for foresight of brand vulnerability and proactive response to it is suggested to be applied in this article. This article covers the following problematic issue: how to develop brand vulnerability foresight scenarios? Methods: In order to develop vulnerability scenarios of the selected brand, methods of in-depth interview, expert assessment and questioning shall be combined. Scientific aim: The aim of this study is to develop brand vulnerability foresight scenarios while applying the development methodology of brand vulnerability foresight scenarios. Findings: This study covers the case of vulnerability foresight of brand acting in the Lithuanian industry branch of beauty and personal care while applying the scenarios’ developing method. Four brand vulnerability foresight scenarios of the analysed brand are developed while applying the development methodology of brand vulnerability foresight scenarios. Conclusions: The results of empiric analysis revealed that the development methodology of brand vulnerability foresight scenarios may be adapted in the industry branch, and thus is sufficiently universal in order to establish vulnerability of brands intended for end-users and to identify proactive branding development solutions. Having implemented the methodology of brand vulnerability scenarios’ development, it is implicated that it shall be improved while choosing more efficient development methods of brand vulnerability.